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November 24, 2025

New Study: As Heat Rises, So Do Workplace Injuries

New research reveals that heat significantly increases the risk of all types of workplace injuries, ranging from falls to equipment accidents.

A warehouse worker wearing a safety vest rubs his back.

When most employers think about heat-related workplace risks, they picture heat exhaustion or heat stroke among outdoor workers. But new research published in Environmental Health reveals a far more pervasive problem: Extreme heat substantially increases the risk of all types of workplace injuries — from slips and falls to equipment accidents to musculoskeletal injuries — and this effect occurs across nearly every industry sector, including predominantly indoor workplaces.

The study, "A Nationwide Analysis of Heat and Workplace Injuries in the United States," was led by researchers at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and George Washington University. At a National Commission on Climate and Workforce Health event on Oct. 30, 2025, members heard insights from three of those researchers:

  • Dr. David Michaels, a member of the Commission, professor at the George Washington University School of Public Health, and former Assistant Secretary of Labor for OSHA
  • Dr. Gregory Wagner, an adjunct professor at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
  • Dr. Barrak Alahmad, Senior Research scientist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health

845,000 Injuries, One Clear Pattern

Temperature risk scale: Injury risk increases as temperature increases.
Source: Environmental Health

The study analyzed all 845,014 workplace injuries reported to OSHA's Injury Tracking Application in 2023. Each injury was matched with high-resolution weather data for the specific date and location.

The findings are striking:

  • Injury risk begins rising around 85°F and accelerates sharply above 90°F.
  • At 100°F to 105°F, injury risk increases by 10% to 15% compared to risk at 80°F.
  • At 110°F, injury risk jumps by 20%.
  • Approximately 28,000 workplace injuries nationwide in 2023 were attributable to heat exposure above 70°F.

"These are not heat injuries," Dr. Michaels said. "These are the sorts of injuries that are occurring every day; they just occur more frequently because both the body and the mind are strained by the heat."

Heat Impairs Performance Before It Causes Heat Illness

Long before workers experience heat exhaustion, elevated temperatures could impair:

  • Hand-eye coordination and reaction times
  • Balance and stability
  • Cognitive function, including attention, memory, irritability, and judgment
  • Muscular performance, leading to fatigue

When workers become overheated, they make mistakes. They misjudge distances. Their reaction times slow. Their focus drifts. The result: injuries that would never be classified as "heat-related" but are directly caused by working in hot conditions.

It's Not Just Outdoor Workers

One of the study's most important findings challenges the common misconception that heat primarily affects outdoor workers. In fact, heat affects workers across nearly all industry sectors, not just those working outdoors.

The researchers found high injury counts in:

  • Health care and social assistance: 25.8% of injuries in the dataset
  • Transportation and warehousing: 21.8%
  • Retail trade: 19.1%
  • Manufacturing: 18.1%

Dr. Wagner noted that "some of the indoor workplaces like warehouses and manufacturing facilities can be both hotter" and have "more concentrated toxic materials" compared to outdoor environments. This happens particularly when mechanical cooling systems fail during extreme heat, which is when they're needed most.

From Claims to Culture

For HR and benefits leaders, the implications extend beyond workplace safety.

Workers' compensation costs: The study found that injury rates increase across all heat levels, meaning even moderately hot days (85°F to 95°F) lead to additional claims. Other business challenges, like economic uncertainty, tariffs, and supply chain disruptions, are compounded when heat drives up injury rates.

Productivity losses: Beyond injuries, research shows that extreme heat reduces worker productivity. The International Labour Organization estimates that heat stress causes 295 billion lost work hours worldwide annually.

Retention and attraction: According to research by the Commission, conducted in partnership with Northwind Climate, 55% of U.S. workers say they already face moderate or higher climate-related health risks at work, and 43% say climate-health readiness is a major reason to stay with their employer.

State Heat Standards Show Promise

The study provides compelling evidence that state-level heat protection regulations work. Researchers compared injury patterns in five states with occupational heat standards as of 2023 (California, Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington) with injury patterns in states without such protections. The results:

  • In states with heat rules, injury odds increased by 9% on 110°F days (vs. 80°F).
  • In states without heat rules, injury odds increased by 22% on 110°F days.

"You can really have an impact," Dr. Michaels emphasized. "But you need some regulatory body to step in and say, 'We need to ensure that workers are protected." While federal standards remain uncertain, this research demonstrates that employer action — whether voluntary or driven by state regulations — meaningfully reduces risk.

What Employers Should Do Now

Based on the research findings and the discussion, employers should:

  1. Recognize heat as a safety issue.
    Make sure employee health and safety (EHS) professionals and frontline supervisors understand that heat increases all injury types, not just heat illness.
  2. Assess your exposure.
    Map which facilities, roles, and operations face elevated heat index levels, especially during the summer months. Remember that indoor facilities without adequate cooling are often at very high risk.
  3. Coordinate across departments.
    Addressing climate-driven health risks requires collaboration across HR, benefits, EHS, sustainability, risk management, and finance.
  4. Establish heat action plans now.
    Don't wait for federal regulations. "Future regulations don't help protect people from the health risks they are facing today," Dr. Michaels said. Key interventions include:
    • Rest breaks during high heat
    • Access to water, shade, and cooling
    • Acclimatization protocols for new workers or those returning after time away
    • Training on heat hazards, warning signs, and emergency response
  5. Consider your workers' compensation exposure.
    Work with your insurance partners and risk management teams to understand how heat-driven injuries affect your experience modification rate and premiums.
  6. Track and measure outcomes.
    Monitor injury rates on high-heat days compared to moderate-temperature days to quantify your exposure and measure the effectiveness of interventions.

Looking Ahead

The researchers noted that their findings likely underestimate the true burden, as the OSHA data covers only large establishments (100+ employees) in certain high-hazard industries, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that it undercounts injuries by 20% to 70%.

The World Economic Forum's 2024 Global Risk Report ranks extreme weather as the top risk to businesses over the next decade, causing not just supply chain disruptions or property damage, but also impacting the health, safety, and productivity of their workforce. Heat affects workers across nearly all industries and facility types. It's up to employers to take proactive steps to understand who is at risk and keep them safe.

Free Resources for Your Team

Download our free tip sheets on protecting employees from extreme heat

The Commission is pleased to share these resources to help protect workers against the dangers of extreme heat:

  • "Protecting Your Employees From Extreme Heat"
    Easy-to-follow strategies to help employers implement a heat stress management program.
  • "Protecting Yourself From Extreme Heat"
    Practical advice for employees on staying safe, hydrated, and vigilant in extreme heat.
Get your free tip sheets
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The National Commission on Climate and Workforce Health is a nationwide effort to protect workers from the health risks posed by extreme weather.

The Commission was created by the Health Action Alliance in partnership with Mercer and with strategic input from the CDC Foundation. Additional support for the initiative is being provided by Elevance Health and The Hartford.

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Presenting Sponsor: Mercer | With Additional Support From: Elevance Health, The Hartford

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