Designed to help organizations stay ahead of climate-related challenges, the Climate Health Cost Forecaster projects potential long-term health care costs linked to extreme heat, air quality, flooding, and other environmental stressors — empowering employers to make informed, proactive decisions.

The Forecaster is powered by a combination of weather data, epidemiological research and Mercer’s proprietary health cost modeling to help employers assess climate-related health risks and financial impacts. The Forecaster reveals that employees in climate-controlled environments have about 40% lower health care costs, while industries like agriculture, utilities, and construction face up to double the risk due to climate factors.

The National Commission on Climate and Workforce Health, in partnership with Mercer, is proud to introduce the Climate Health Cost Forecaster — a first-of-its-kind tool built on a groundbreaking model by Mercer. It integrates climate data, epidemiological research, and Mercer’s proprietary health cost modeling to provide powerful, data-driven insights. View the full press release here. 

How It Works — And Why You Can Trust It

The Climate Health Cost Forecaster estimates how climate-related events — extreme heat, poor air quality, flooding, and hurricanes — will increase health care claims costs for employer-sponsored health plans over the next 10 years. It’s built specifically for U.S.-based workforces, using health care claims and environmental data. While results focus on employer-sponsored plans, other types may experience different impacts.

To run a forecast, you'll need to provide:

• Your organization’s industry
• Total number of employees
• The first three digits of four zip codes (MSAs) with the largest employee populations
• Employee count in each of those zip codes
• Percentage of employees in each zip code working in climate-controlled environments
• Expected annual per-employee medical and prescription drug costs (PEPY) if available

The model integrates data from the CDC, EPA, FEMA, USDA, and Mercer’s proprietary claims database. It uses historical and projected trends to estimate the added health care costs from climate-driven health risks. Members of the National Commission on Climate and Workforce Health reviewed and guided the methodology applied to the model underpinning the Forecaster.

The results are scaled by employer size, industry, and regional exposure, giving organizations a tailored view of their potential health care cost risk from climate impacts.

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